Automation and Artificial Intelligence in the Portuguese Labour Market: challenges and opportunities
Professions such as domestic cleaners, office and hotel cleaning staff, fitness instructors and skilled agricultural workers fall into this category — referred to as «human terrain» occupations — that are not at risk of being replaced.
However, the authors warn that nearly 29% of the country's workforce — including waiting staff, mobile equipment operators and cooks — fall into the «collapsing professions» category. This means that these jobs are severely threatened by automation and AI and are facing significant risk of extinction.
Conversely, primary school teachers, early childhood educators and specialists in sales, marketing, finance and accounting exemplify the ascending professions" category, which refers to the professions that stand to gain the most from digitalisation. These roles make up 22.5% of the labour market and could potentially experience productivity gains related to AI, while simultaneously being safeguarded from the destructive effects of automation.
A smaller segment of workers (12.9%) is employed in the «machine terrain», a category encompassing office clerks, food production machine operators and production and transport support service workers. The future for these workers is uncertain, as technological changes have the potential to both benefit and destabilise these sectors.
The analysis also reveals that the opportunities and risks of labour market digitalisation vary across Portugal, highlighting the need for public policies tailored to the specificities of local economies.
Lisbon, Coimbra, Porto and Vila Real are the districts that could benefit most from automation and AI, as they have the highest percentage of workers in «ascending professions». In contrast, in Viana do Castelo, Braga, Aveiro and Viseu, 40% of employed workers are susceptible to the destructive effects of technological change.
The study demonstrates the necessity of education and skills development to prepare the workforce for the demands of a digital economy, underscoring the importance of revising academic curricula to place greater emphasis on digital literacy, AI and competencies in automation technologies.
The authors also contend that retraining will be necessary for professions not at risk of automation, stressing the need to ensure long-term employability. In light of this, they emphasise the growing importance of skills such as communication, creativity and problem-solving for the future.
