This project emerged from the in-depth work on business cycle dating in Portugal. A group of seven renowned economists conducted a thorough analysis of the performance of the national economy, working with relevant data using advanced statistical models.

19/08/2020

The state of the Portuguese economy during the Covid-19 pandemic

This recession threatens to break the record of the previous recession, which was the worst since 1980. The special simplified layoff system makes it difficult to compare the employment data with previous data.

In the first half of 2020, the Portuguese economy went into a sudden, severe recession. The real GDP per capita fell 3.9% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. This was followed in the second quarter by a knock-on fall of 14.1% – the two steepest falls since records began (1977). Several monthly economic activity indicators show significant declines between February and March and historic declines the following month. (...)

The last recession, 2010-2013, had a greater amplitude than all recessions since 1980, but the recession that the country now finds itself in is threatening to beat that record.