Nate Silver came to prominence in the US by predicting the winner of the 2008 presidential elections in 49 of the 50 US states.
That same forecasting model allowed him to be one of the few analysts who conceded that a Trump victory in 2016 was possible. Nate Silver, considered one of the world's leading experts in statistical analysis, is the first guest on this programme.
Why are statistical forecasting models such an important tool for measuring forces in elections? Why did they fail in polls like the US presidential election that elected Donald Trump or the Brexit referendum? And how can they be effective with anti-system groups of citizens who refuse to give their opinions or actively try to sabotage them?
Listen to Nate Silver answer these questions from journalist Pedro Pinto's questions, in a new format of interviews on major current issues, simplified by leading experts.
Because in a time of dizzying information, sometimes you need to pause before you can understand. Because not everything is so simple.
The Signal and The Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Nate Silver, 2012
New York Magazine article on Nate Silver, 2008
Newsweek article on Nate Silver, 2008
Article about Nate Silver in The Atlantic, 2020
Conference «How Far Can We See the Future?», with Philip E. Tetlock at the Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos
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Big issues, big names in a new programme dedicated to interviews with international personalities from the world of politics, economics and society. These conversations with special guests, conducted by journalist Pedro Pinto, aim to simplify and help demystify some of today's most important issues. Every month, on the Foundation's website.
