Migration and demographic sustainability

There is general consensus on the need for societies to adapt to changing demographic trends. In this sense, it is important to consider the pace at which these changes are taking place and the factors that can contribute to a gradual transition. Migration is one of these factors and is particularly relevant in countries where the process of population ageing began many decades ago, as is the case in Portugal.

Given the growing influence of migration on the trajectories and pace of the population ageing process for the future demographic, economic and political-social sustainability of our country, this study by Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos aims to assess future trends in the resident population in Portugal, segmented by region, taking into account the volumes of migration that will be needed to ensure its sustainability. To this end, the study analyses issues such as:

• the size of the migration balance needed to compensate for the process of population ageing and decline;
• meeting future human resource needs, in total and by skill level, calculating the migration needed to replace the workforce;
• the impact of migration on the balance of the social security system, particularly in the case of the old-age pension system.

The greatest novelty in this study is the comparative observation of these dynamics. By establishing the levels of migration that would be necessary to offset the demographic, economic and old-age pension system imbalances, it allows us to conclude that Portugal should remain a country open to immigration and resistant to new emigration exoduses, such as the one that occurred after the 2008 economic crisis. But by establishing that the levels of necessary migration are much higher than known, it also warns of the need to look for other solutions.

In short, this study is not intended to predict the future, but to contribute to sustained reflection on possible futures. Only in this way, based on more and better information, will it be possible to make choices that lead to the construction of the «desired future», mitigating risks, anticipating threats and boosting opportunities.