The alliance that has assured peace in almost all of Europe is now at the centre of everybody's attention. «We’re currently in a very dangerous era. The next 25 years will probably be the most challenging NATO has ever had», said Peter Apps, an international policy commentator at Reuters and author of the book «Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO».
In this interview, the expert is convinced that a new world conflict will be triggered by the ambition of countries that want to extend their borders by force of arms.
«I think that the world will be organised enough that we probably won’t have a third world war by mistake. If we do, it would be because one or more countries has made a really big gamble on attempting to do what Putin did in Ukraine», he stressed.
With Europe dealing with the war on Ukrainian territory – and on the verge of affecting NATO member countries – the old continent will have to rethink investment in defence. And with Donald Trump in the White House, Europeans will have to be more autonomous in their military decisions.
The future of the relationship between the US and Europe is still open. The expert points out that, on the one hand, it is not certain that Europeans «are doing enough to keep Trump’s government on their side in order to ensure continued US support». On the other hand, it is not known how tolerant the next US president will be if Europe tries to go its own way.
Reinforcing the importance of NATO membership in the Nordic countries, but also Turkey, Peter Apps predicts that the tense environment being felt could drag on for 15, 20 or 30 years, precipitating a new Cold War.
However, Peter Apps leaves a message of hope for the future on this episode of It's Not That Simple: «We are clearly in an era of confrontation, but common sense will prevail».
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Big issues, big names in a new programme dedicated to interviews with international personalities from the world of politics, economics and society. These conversations with special guests, conducted by journalist Pedro Pinto, aim to simplify and help demystify some of today's most important issues. Every month, on the Foundation's website.
