Nate Silver came to prominence in the US by predicting the winner of the 2008 presidential elections in 49 of the 50 US states.
That same forecasting model allowed him to be one of the few analysts who conceded that a Trump victory in 2016 was possible. Nate Silver, considered one of the world's leading experts in statistical analysis, is the first guest on this programme.
Why are statistical forecasting models such an important tool for measuring forces in elections? Why did they fail in polls like the US presidential election that elected Donald Trump or the Brexit referendum? And how can they be effective with anti-system groups of citizens who refuse to give their opinions or actively try to sabotage them?
Listen to Nate Silver answer these questions from journalist Pedro Pinto's questions, in a new format of interviews on major current issues, simplified by leading experts.
Because in a time of dizzying information, sometimes you need to pause before you can understand. Because not everything is so simple.
