Europe’s energy transition: Balancing the trilemma

Providing a stable energy supply is often described in terms of a «trilemma» — a balance between supply security, environmental sustainability, and affordability. Of the three pillars of energy supply, security is the easiest to take for granted. Supply seems fine until it isn’t. Security of fossil fuel supply is particularly easy to ignore in countries that are striving to greatly reduce their fossil fuel consumption for climate reasons. The political focus is on building renewable energy and zero-carbon systems, and mitigating the economic, social, and political costs of transition; the thought was that the existing system would take care of itself until it was phased out. This was the case for much of Europe until two years ago.

Titled «Europe's energy transition: Balancing the trilemma», this project is composed of a series of six policy papers, developed by the Brookings Institution in partnership with the Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. They aim to analyze the different aspects of the energy transition in Europe, beginning with the chilling shock of Russia’s decision to cut off gas supply to Europe, and then delving more deeply into specific aspects of European energy security and their policy implications.

This project is the result of the Foundation's current internationalization efforts. In the globalized and dynamic world we live in, it becomes impossible to understand the Portuguese society without placing it in the proper European and global context. Therefore, with the aim of more effectively fulfilling its mission to contribute to the knowledge of Portuguese society, the Foundation is developing a series of scientific projects with universities, think tanks, and internationally renowned foundations.

Dependency on Russian gas proved to be quite harmful for Europe’s energy security when Russian troops began invading Ukraine. The weaponization of energy supplies forced European countries to look beyond their unstable Russian partner. This story is usually told in heroic terms as the old continent managed to secure new supplies and weathered the storm in spite of Russia’s efforts.

As much as this is not false, this story hides the significant nuances between European countries and regions. This first paper highlights not only Russia’s grip and subsequent weaponization of European energy supplies, but also maps out Europe’s gas security challenges by regions and identifies the alternatives they sought out. Finally, the researchers show the uncertainties that paint the horizon of Europe’s LNG imports from the US and the consequences of a decoupling from Russia’s gas for Ukraine’s economic future. Many questions regarding the future were left unanswered, prompting the continuation of this series of papers. The authors of this paper are Samantha Gross, Director of Energy Security and Climate Initiative of the Brookings Institution, and Constanze Stelzenmüller, Director of the Center on the United States and Europe of the Brookings Institution.

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